By Adefolarin A. Olamilekan
As the year 2026 unfold, the global economic landscape is significantly impacted by heightened geopolitical tensions and escalating conflicts, which disrupted economic activities.
For instance, the ongoing middle East Crisis in the form of war between the US and Iran as led to serious global crude volatility affecting prices of Petro,gas, aviation fuel, fertilizer amongst other global commodities.
Another is the persistent inflation that have exerted significant pressure on households and businesses across the world.
In this current global macroeconomics instability both advanced economies, emerging economies,and developing economist were not spare it’s harsh conditions. In the forms of high cost of living, transportation and logistics, energy shortage, investment slacks and increasing cost for governance.
Such that adjustments need to be deployed in interest rates, inflation intensifies, and fiscal imbalance, Without a handful of means to provide relief and a pathway toward economic stability.
In all these global economic challenges of today Nigeria is not isolated from the current global economic tension. Much as the nation’s macroeconomic environment is also influenced from external factors just as local economic dynamics and challenges tasking on policymakers seeking to pursue economic stabilisation. Through a combination of monetary and fiscal reforms, as activating new trading policy’s.
Some couples of days from now President Tinubu’s will be three years in office managing Nigeria’s macroeconomics environment, that is May 29th 2026, having taking oat office far back May 29th 2023.
With major policies reforms that cut across monetary,fiscal and trade policy shifts. Although concerns are more on the exchange rate liberalisation, stricter macro Prudential measures with a new detailing of amassing gold as strategic buffer for the nation external reserve of today standing at $3.5 billion and mores is still expected.
Similarly, the sustainance of the removal of selected subsidies and the restructuring of the tax system and application of it’s in views of more government revenues is a modern adjustment impacting the Nigeria’s Macroeconomics environment of today.
With both negative and positive results, although more visible as persistent macroeconomic instability, which worsened socio-economic outcomes.
At the same time the real sector and sub sectors still report great retire from investment, such includes the banks, capital markets growth in market capitalization over N150trillion, industry profit after tax soars and real estate continue to boom in within the same Nigeria macroeconomics environment.
However, while Nigeria’s Macroeconomics environment continues to endures, the below indicators are attributes in the forms of positive or negative indexes;
First, is the direct and indirect impacts of the Middle East US Iran war on global economy transmission on Nigeria’s Energy Crisis on soaring local petroleum products prices. That PMS now selling at N1,400 per litre, Jet A1 fuel N3,300 per liter, Diesel N1,800 per liter, Kerosene N1.900 per liter and cooking gas N1,200 per kg.
Secondly, on what could be a blessing from the Middle East crisis it the higher oil receipt revenues tag as windfall some economist calculated be up to N15 trillion after the war.
On the other the 2026 budget estimate as signed by President Tinubu’s explain it all with oil bench mark at $64.86 per barrel and exchange rate N1,400/$1, is considered a smart move from the government.
Unfortunately, from a critical understanding of Nigeria’s macroeconomics environment oil price volatility constitute a challenge to Nigeria’s macroeconomic.
Thirdly, there is no doubt that under this same situation of Nigeria’s macroeconomics the nation foreign Exchange Reserves as been enjoying a robust rising up $48 billion dollars.
In addition to improvement on latest CBN revive gold reserve rise to $3.5billion as reserves diversification to stabilize Naira against other global currencies.
Fourthly, many analysts argued that policy orientation also fuels our macroeconomic challenge. Fuel subsidy removal, naira devaluation, amongst others.
Although the current government as made a good of it defence with the argument of inflation easing toward single digits at 15.38%, naira
exchange rate volatility is moderating as expected from a liberalised FX Market that now see naira exchange at N1,380/$1.
Lastly, the sad reality is that all achievement within the same macroeconomics as not change the plight of reducing 33% unemployment rate and 64% poverty equevelent of141 millions out off nation population of 250milion. Much more as the country still an import dependent economy.
That requires over $100 just billion dollars to tackle infrastructure deficit in the economy.
The thrust on Nigeria’s Macroeconomics is not in doubt, as seeking practical recommendations that would serve as a valuable resource for policymakers and other stakeholders, fostering informed discussions and contributing to sustainable growth and economic transformation. Is what we cannot run from,and we must keep posting this facts to government of today and that of future to engage till get it rights a nation.
. Adefolarin A.Olamilekan
Political Economist
Host of The Market Report show
Adbn TV,Abuja
08073814436
