Terrorists killed at least 835 persons in 612 security incidents across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory in October 2026, according to a report by risk intelligence and security analysis firm SARI Global.
The report identified armed bandits and insurgents as both the most frequent and deadliest actors in the country for the first time in recent months.
SARI Global specialises in providing operational data, climate intelligence, and crisis management support for organisations working in volatile environments.
It cited a market-day massacre in Taraba State, sustained road blockade operations in Zamfara State, and the assassination of a cleric in Katsina State as key incidents marking a month of broad deterioration.
The document, titled SARI Global’s Nigeria Monthly Security Overview for October 2026 and obtained by Sunday PUNCH on Friday, showed that both incidents and fatalities rose significantly month-on-month.
The firm’s June and July 2026 reports recorded 882 and 596 incidents respectively, with 792 and 570 deaths.
October figures showed a 14 per cent rise in incidents and a 42 per cent jump in fatalities compared to September, which the report called the sharpest monthly escalation in lethality tracked in recent months.
“October was a month of rising volume and sharply rising lethality. SARI Global recorded 612 incidents, 14 per cent more than in September, and at least 835 fatalities, 42 per cent more, across 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory,” the report stated.
“The Armed Conflict category produced 617 of the 835 deaths. A substantial share were armed-group fighters killed in failed assaults and airstrikes, so the rise reflects heavier fighting as well as heavier civilian loss. Non-state armed actors were, for the first time in recent months, both the most frequent initiating actor (221 incidents) and by far the deadliest (480 fatalities).”
A weekly data breakdown showed that the first week, spanning October 1 to 7, recorded 150 incidents and 234 fatalities, driven by an ISWAP base assault in Kukawa, killings in Momo, and the crash of a Nigerian Air Force ATR-42 aircraft (NAF 931) near a naval base in Igbokoda, Ondo State.
The fourth week, from October 22 to 28, recorded 123 incidents and a higher 252 fatalities, driven by a siege in Birnin Tudu, the Taraba massacre, and the assassination of a prominent cleric.
The report listed October 1, 2, 8, and 16 as the highest-tempo days of the month.
On attribution, the report noted that non-state armed actors initiated 221 of the month’s incidents against 218 for government-affiliated forces, and were linked to 480 deaths against 197 for state forces—a reversal it flagged as significant.
“Non-state armed actors initiated 221 incidents against 218 for government-affiliated forces, and caused 480 fatalities against 197,” the report stated.
“The state-forces figure includes the deaths of more than 30 detainees in NSCDC custody in Minna, which an inquiry panel later described as a preventable custodial tragedy.
“A busy security apparatus remains no proof of an improving environment; this month the armed groups simply outpaced it.”
SARI Global ranked Zamfara as the most incident-dense state in October, with 69 incidents and 137 fatalities. It displaced Borno State, which nonetheless recorded the highest fatality count at 180 deaths from 51 incidents, mostly from fighting between ISWAP and the military around Lake Chad.
Plateau State followed with 65 incidents and 62 deaths, while Katsina (37), Kebbi (27), Lagos and Sokoto (22 each), Niger (19), Rivers (18), and Benue (17) made up the rest of the top 10.
The report cited the October 23 attack on Binnari, a market town in the Karim Lamido Local Government Area of Taraba State, where a large group of armed men struck the weekly market, the central mosque immediately after Friday prayers, and the local vigilante office.
It stated that residents who fled toward the Benue River were pursued into the water, with many drowning. The death toll rose from an initial police count of 10 to an official figure of 58, and subsequently to no fewer than 62 dead and 52 injured, with 15 bodies recovered from the river.
“The scale and method resemble the mass-casualty bandit attacks of the North West rather than the communal violence more typical of Taraba,” the report said, warning that a second attack on the same community on October 27 showed the area remained exposed.
In Zamfara State, the report indicated that attacks have evolved from opportunistic ambushes to the systematic control of roads.
Bandits blocked the Gusau–Dansadau road on October 16, destroying nine vehicles, and imposed a N50m levy on communities in Dansadau District, displacing more than 300 residents.
An escorted convoy of traders was ambushed near Gurusu on October 11, where at least 20 people were killed—including soldiers and police officers—despite military presence. Troops reopened the road on October 21, but bandits blocked it again on October 31.
SARI Global also recorded a sustained campaign by the Islamic State West Africa Province against military bases at Kukawa, Mairari, Hong, Buni Yadi, Bitta, and Bama throughout the month. This included a command-detonated improvised explosive device that killed nine soldiers near Gamboru and an armed drone attack at Gudumbali, even as the military stated it repelled the assaults and killed dozens of fighters.
According to the report, the targeting of religious authorities and a shrinking humanitarian space were notable new trends in October.
It cited the assassination of Sheikh Yahaya Ibrahim Masussuka in Dutsin-Ma, Katsina State, on October 26, which was claimed by Ansaru; the killing of a female NGO worker in Sokoto State; and the looting of an NGO health facility in Ngala. Terrorists also raided a Maiduguri compound housing seven United Nations national staff.
The report further noted that the political climate heated up as campaigners of the governing All Progressives Congress were stoned in at least five northern states. About 46 incidents were linked to political parties, campaigns, or thugs, which the report tied to the advancing 2027 electoral cycle.
SARI Global is a US-registered security intelligence firm that provides conflict monitoring, threat analysis, and operational risk advisory services to international NGOs, UN agencies, embassies, and corporations working in high-risk environments.
Founded by professionals from the humanitarian, military, and private sectors, the organisation operates across Africa, the Middle East, and Asia.
(Punch)
