. Figure unrealistic, detached from economic realities, says FG
…as World Bank insists poverty level worsening despite reforms
Presidency and the World are at loggerheads over the latest economic report by Nigeria’s biggest multilateral lender, the World Bank, which estimates that 139 million citizens are living in poverty.
The Nigerian government described the figure as “unrealistic” and detached from the country’s economic realities.
Earlier on Wednesday, the World Bank had expressed concern that despite Nigeria’s recent economic stabilisation efforts, no fewer than 139 million Nigerians are currently living in poverty.
The global lender therefore warned that the country risks losing hard-won reform gains if policies are not translated into tangible improvements in citizens’ welfare.
The World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, sounded this note of warning during the launch of the October 2025 Nigeria Development Update titled, “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home” on Wednesday in Abuja.
But in a swift reaction, President Bola Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Media and Public Communication, Sunday Dare, said in a post on his official X handle on that the poverty figures must be “properly contextualised” within the limits of global poverty measurement models.
According to Dare, “While Nigeria values its partnership with the World Bank and appreciates its contributions to policy analysis, the figure quoted must be properly contextualised. It is unrealistic.”
Presidency explained that the 139 million figure quoted in the World Bank report was derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, set in 2017 using Purchasing Power Parity, and should not be mistaken for an actual headcount of poor Nigerians.
It noted that when converted to nominal terms, the $2.15 benchmark equals about N100,000 per month at current exchange rates, which is well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000.
The presidential spokesperson stated, “There must be caution against interpreting the World Bank’s numbers as a literal, real-time headcount. The estimate is derived from the global poverty line of $2.15 per person per day, a benchmark set in 2017 Purchasing Power Parity terms. If converted nominally, that figure equals about $64.5 per month, or nearly N100,000 at today’s exchange rate, well above Nigeria’s new minimum wage of N70,000. Clearly, the measure is an analytical construct, not a direct reflection of local income realities.
“Poverty assessment under PPP methodology uses historical consumption data (Nigeria’s last major survey was in 2018/19) and often overlooks the informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of households. The government, therefore, regards the figure as a modelled global estimate, not an empirical representation of conditions in 2025. What truly matters is the trajectory, and Nigeria’s is now one of recovery and inclusive reform.”
Dare stressed that poverty estimates under the PPP methodology rely on historical consumption data, often overlooking the vast informal and subsistence economies that sustain millions of Nigerian households. The government, therefore, considers the World Bank’s estimate as “a modelled global projection, not an empirical representation of living conditions in 2025.”
Dare stressed that what truly matters is not the static figure but the direction of change, adding that Nigeria’s economy is now on a recovery and reform trajectory, driven by policies designed to ensure inclusive growth and social protection.
Presidency noted that the current administration had expanded a number of welfare and intervention programmes aimed at cushioning the impact of recent reforms, while laying the groundwork for long-term prosperity.
Dare highlighted the key initiatives to include, “Conditional Cash Transfers: Expanded to reach up to 15 million households nationwide, with verified digital enrolment through the National Social Register. Over N297 billion has been disbursed since 2023 to poor and vulnerable families. Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme: A major new initiative targeting all 8,809 electoral wards, delivering micro-infrastructure, livelihoods, and social services directly at the community level.
“National Social Investment Programmes: Strengthened components such as N-Power, GEEP micro-loans (TraderMoni, MarketMoni, FarmerMoni), and Home-Grown School Feeding to protect jobs, encourage small enterprise, and keep children in school. Food Security Initiatives: Distribution of subsidised grains and fertilisers, mechanisation partnerships, and the revival of strategic food reserves to curb inflationary pressure on staples.
“Renewed Hope Infrastructure Fund: Financing critical energy, road, and housing projects to lower living costs and stimulate local employment, National Credit Guarantee Company: Expanding affordable credit to small businesses, women, and youth entrepreneurs through risk-sharing mechanisms with commercial banks.”
The statement stressed that the Tinubu administration was tackling Nigeria’s poverty challenge by addressing the structural distortions that have constrained productivity and inclusive growth for decades.
Citing ongoing reforms such as fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and the fiscal reallocation of funds toward productive sectors, it described them as “painful but necessary choices” to fix the root causes of poverty rather than its symptoms.
“Even the World Bank itself has acknowledged that these reforms are already restoring macroeconomic stability and growth momentum,” the statement added, referencing recent remarks by World Bank officials acknowledging signs of economic recovery under the Tinubu administration.”
Presidency stressed that economic recovery alone is not enough unless it translates into real welfare gains for ordinary Nigerians.
The statement further stated that the administration’s medium-term priority is to ensure that macroeconomic stability leads to affordable food, quality jobs, and reliable infrastructure.
It added, “Investments are being ramped up in agriculture, manufacturing, and power reliability, including new gas-to-power projects and skill development hubs expected to boost job creation and reduce living costs.
“Nigerians should begin to feel more visible improvements in food prices, income, and purchasing power as these programmes mature.”
The statement added that the administration is consolidating its social protection architecture by integrating all welfare programmes under a unified, data-driven framework to enhance transparency and accountability.
This integration includes expanding the National Social Register and scaling up existing NSIP schemes, ensuring that “no vulnerable community is left behind.”
The statement concluded by reaffirming President Tinubu’s commitment to building “a resilient and inclusive economy” where growth directly improves living standards.
“Nigeria rejects exaggerated statistical interpretations detached from local realities. The government remains focused on empowering households, expanding opportunity, and laying the foundation for a fairer, more prosperous nation.”
But the World Bank which earlier expressed concern that despite Nigeria’s recent economic stabilisation efforts, about 139 million Nigerians are now living in poverty, warned that the country risks losing hard-won reform gains if her policies failed to translate into tangible improvements in the welfare of all citizens.
However, World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, in his address, commended Nigeria’s bold reforms in the exchange rate and petroleum subsidy regimes, describing them as “foundational” steps that could reshape the country’s long-term economic trajectory
According to him, “Over the last two years, Nigeria has commendably implemented bold reforms, notably around the exchange rate and the petrol subsidy. These are the foundations on which the country has the opportunity to build a programme that can transform its economic trajectory.”
The global lender’s Nigeria office boss likened the current reform window to the historic policy shifts seen in countries like India in the early 1990s, noting that such rare opportunities must be seized decisively or risk being lost.
He noted that the reforms are already yielding results, growth is picking up, revenues have risen, debt indicators are improving, the foreign exchange market is stabilising, reserves are climbing, and inflation is gradually easing.
“These results are exactly what you need to see in a stabilisation phase. These are big achievements, and many countries would envy them,” he noted.
But the World Bank chief cautioned that these macroeconomic improvements had yet to translate into improved living conditions for ordinary Nigerians.
“Despite these stabilisation gains, many households are still struggling with eroded purchasing power. Poverty, which began to rise in 2019 due to policy missteps and external shocks such as COVID-19, has continued to increase even after the reforms. In 2025, we estimate that 139 million Nigerians live in poverty,” he disclosed.
The new figure indicates a sharp increase from 129 million recorded in April 2025 and 87 million in 2023, reflecting the deepening hardship among households despite ongoing economic reforms.
