President Bola Tinubu and leaders of the All Progressives Congress will on Saturday kick off the President’s re-election campaign in Kaduna State, as the ruling party intensifies efforts to secure support across the North, which accounts for 56.01 million of Nigeria’s 103.43 million registered voters.
With 31 state governors and other party chieftains expected at the campaign flag-off, the APC is banking on what its leaders describe as a growing consensus among northern stakeholders and voters to secure Tinubu’s re-election in 2027.
The party has also set an ambitious target of mobilising 40 million votes through grassroots engagement, particularly among women, with its leaders expressing confidence that Nigerians will support the President for a second term.
However, the opposition has challenged the APC’s optimism, arguing that economic hardship, rising living costs and persistent insecurity could undermine Tinubu’s re-election bid. The camp of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar insists that Nigerians across regional and religious divides are prepared to vote out the ruling party.
The Kaduna rally is particularly significant given the North’s numerical strength in presidential elections and Tinubu’s loss in the state during the 2023 presidential poll.
Against this backdrop, party leaders and northern stakeholders, including Salihu Mustapha, a member of Arewa for Asiwaju and former APC National Vice Chairman for the North-East, said there was a consensus among stakeholders and voters in Kaduna State to support Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027.
Similarly, APC chieftain and Head of the Presidential Campaign Council’s Stage Organisation and Management, Farouk Aliyu, expressed confidence that Tinubu would emerge victorious in the election.
However, the camp of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress, dismissed Tinubu’s chances of winning a second term, insisting that northerners and other Nigerians were determined to vote the APC out of power.
Meanwhile, Oyo State Governor and presidential candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement, Seyi Makinde, has appealed to Nigerians to allow him to complete the South’s four-year presidential tenure.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission, Nigeria has 103.43 million registered voters across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Lagos has the highest number of registered voters, with 7.49 million, followed by Kano with 6.57 million and Kaduna with 4.66 million. Katsina has 3.88 million, Rivers 3.74 million, Oyo 3.59 million and Delta 3.53 million.
Other states include Benue, with 3.06 million registered voters; Ogun, 3.04 million; Bauchi, 3.01 million; Niger, 2.98 million; Anambra, 2.92 million; Plateau, 2.91 million; Edo, 2.87 million; Jigawa, 2.81 million; Borno, 2.77 million; Imo, 2.71 million; Sokoto, 2.63 million; Akwa Ibom, 2.57 million; Adamawa, 2.43 million; Osun, 2.33 million; Kebbi and Abia, 2.31 million each; Taraba, 2.25 million; Kogi, 2.23 million; Zamfara and Enugu, 2.22 million each; Nasarawa, 2.14 million; and Ondo, 2.12 million.
Cross River has 1.93 million registered voters, Kwara 1.92 million, Ebonyi 1.83 million, Gombe 1.77 million, Yobe 1.73 million, Bayelsa 1.20 million and Ekiti 1.06 million. The Federal Capital Territory has 1.73 million registered voters.
By geopolitical zone, the North-West has the highest number of registered voters, with 25.08 million, followed by the South-West with 19.61 million and the North-Central with 16.97 million. The South-South has 15.82 million voters, while the North-East and South-East have 13.97 million and 11.98 million, respectively.
INEC figures show that the three northern zones have a combined 56.01 million registered voters, representing 54.2 per cent of the national total of 103.43 million.
The North has historically played a pivotal role in determining the outcomes of Nigeria’s presidential elections, largely because of its sizeable voting population and turnout.
This was evident in the 2015 presidential election, when northern voters and political stakeholders contributed significantly to the defeat of then-President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party and the election of the late President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress.
The North’s electoral strength helps explain Tinubu’s decision to choose Kaduna as the starting point for his re-election campaign, despite losing the state in the 2023 presidential election. The President had earlier indicated plans to attend campaign rallies in only a few states.
Ahead of Tinubu’s visit and the arrival of other APC leaders, residents of Barnawa in Kaduna South Local Government Area witnessed a heightened security presence. Operatives of the Nigerian Army, Department of State Services, Nigeria Police Force, Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps and the state vigilante group, alongside personnel of the Federal Road Safety Corps, patrolled major roads with sirens blaring.
The heavily armed security personnel moved through the neighbourhood ahead of Saturday’s campaign flag-off, underscoring the security preparations for the political gathering.
Beyond the security arrangements, the campaign preparations have brought into focus a broader contest over public confidence, governance and the APC’s electoral prospects in Kaduna State.
While the ruling party projects confidence, pledging to deliver more than two million votes for Tinubu and insisting that it has a strong political base in the state, opposition figures argue that insecurity, poverty, rising living costs and alleged failures in public services could undermine its electoral ambitions.
The PUNCH gathered on Thursday that the presidential advance team, responsible for security, protocol, medical services and media, had been dispatched to Kaduna ahead of the event.
A source familiar with the arrangements said the APC and its state chapters were handling the funding and logistics for other attendees.
“The team have left already. All of them — media, security, protocol, medical and others. It’s a big campaign, so everything needs to be done properly,” the official said.
Another official, who requested anonymity because he was not authorised to speak on the matter, said the party and state chapters were jointly handling much of the campaign financing.
“It is the party and the states that are handling much of the campaign finance. But they are all working together,” the official said.
The Presidential Campaign Council was inaugurated at the State House on October 14, with Tinubu as chairman, Vice-President Kashim Shettima and APC National Chairman, Yilwatda, as vice-chairmen, and Senator Abdulaziz Yari as Director-General.
According to the campaign schedule released on October 14, subsequent rallies are scheduled to hold in Calabar on November 2, Gombe on November 3, Lafia on November 4 and Ado-Ekiti on November 5. The campaign activities will continue through January 2027.
The Kaduna State Local Organising Committee, chaired by Deputy Governor Hadiza Balarabe, said it had inspected the venue, Kaduna Flagship Stadium. The Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa (retd.), led a security inspection on Wednesday.
Former APC National Vice Chairman for the North-East, Salihu Mustapha, told The PUNCH that northern stakeholders were rallying behind Tinubu, citing political appointments and increased revenue allocations to state governments.
He also claimed that the administration had made progress in tackling insecurity in the North, arguing that the situation had improved compared with previous years, despite persistent security challenges.
Mustapha said, “He has done a lot for the North, and you can see it in the political activities in the region. Northern politics is largely based on stakeholder consensus, not just heightened hostility on social media. Northern voters are not necessarily active on social media. The system works in such a way that every community has leadership, and the leadership internally determines where the votes go. And there is a consensus among northern leaders and voters to re-elect President Tinubu.”
He added, “We have our sons and daughters appointed to various offices in this country. The appointments are not lopsided. It is virtually a 50-50 balance. He has ensured that all our governors get enough revenue to pay salaries and create opportunities. Thousands of students are enjoying the NELFUND student loan scheme, and security policies are being implemented across the northern states.
“No matter how we want to put it, we have been able to overcome certain levels of insecurity. Insecurity is dynamic, and its patterns keep changing. So, it will interest you to know that there is virtually a seamless consensus in the North supporting Asiwaju. You have seen campaign organisations such as Arewa for Asiwaju. Northern Nigeria has decided.”
Mustapha maintained that northern political leaders and voters were backing Tinubu’s re-election bid, expressing confidence that the President would not suffer the same fate as former President Goodluck Jonathan, who lost the 2015 election.
He said, “You can compare 2015 with 2027 and the APC government with the PDP government. During former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan’s administration, the political structure and individuals in the North were against him. The situation is different today, as the political structure and people of the North are behind President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
“They support him and will vote to re-elect him in January 2027 because of the laudable achievements of his administration. The North is behind him, and there is no cause for alarm. President Tinubu will not suffer the same fate as Jonathan.”
Similarly, APC chieftain and Head of the Presidential Campaign Council’s Stage Organisation and Management, Farouk Aliyu, said the party was optimistic that northern voters would support Tinubu’s re-election bid in 2027.
He acknowledged that the contest would be challenging but said the APC would intensify efforts to persuade voters to support the President.
“We will campaign everywhere in the North for the President’s re-election because he deserves another term. The North and even the South will vote for him again. We will appeal to the people, show them what the government has done and ask for their patience. We will explain to them that the reforms were not introduced to harm them but to protect them. There will be no problem, by the grace of God. It will be tough, but it is not insurmountable,” Aliyu said.
He added, “There are voters who will be hostile supporters of other parties. It is not just the APC. It all depends on where you are strong and where you are not strong. That has nothing to do with the APC alone. It has to do with the party’s selection of voters.”
Also, the Co-Chair of the APC Presidential Campaign Council’s Directorate of Women Mobilisation, Dr Betta Edu, said Nigerians would begin to enjoy economic prosperity if Tinubu were re-elected for a second term in 2027.
Edu argued that the country had passed the difficult phase of economic reforms and was approaching a period of prosperity under the Tinubu administration.
She spoke in Kaduna on Thursday when she led members of the directorate on a courtesy visit to the state Deputy Governor, Dr Hadiza Balarabe, who chairs the local organising committee for the APC campaign flag-off.
“We have gone through the reform phase already. Now it is time for prosperity. We are already at the gate of prosperity once President Tinubu is re-elected,” Edu declared.
The former Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation also said the directorate was targeting about 40 million votes for Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim Shettima in the 2027 presidential election.
She said achieving the target would require sustained grassroots mobilisation and direct engagement with women across the country, rather than relying solely on large crowds at political rallies.
“Our plan as the PCC mobilisation directorate is to see that we can mobilise at least close to 40 million votes for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. And we cannot do this without getting down to the grassroots,” she said.
Edu explained that the directorate would engage women in markets, communities and households to understand their concerns and communicate the administration’s achievements.
She urged APC women leaders and supporters in Kaduna State to intensify peaceful, door-to-door campaigns, stressing the need to persuade voters without intimidation or coercion.
Responding, Balarabe assured the delegation that the Kaduna State Government and the campaign flag-off committee were working to ensure a successful event.
She said several planning and coordination meetings had been held, adding that Kaduna’s strategic position in northern Nigeria placed a responsibility on the state to demonstrate its organisational capacity.
“We try as much as possible to take any assignment given to us seriously,” the deputy governor said.
However, the Special Adviser on Media to former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, Paul Ibe, told The PUNCH that the level of hardship in the country had made Tinubu’s re-election bid untenable.
He argued that economic hardship affected Nigerians across regional and ethnic lines and would be a major factor in the 2027 election.
“There is a consensus on the level of suffering of the Nigerian people. This is not just about the North or the South. The issue is neither about North-Central, North-East and North-West nor is it about South-South, South-East and South-West. This election is a bread-and-butter issue: it is about the economy,” Ibe said.
“There is no petrol station in this country where there is disparity in the price of fuel sold to a Yoruba person, Hausa person or an Igbo person. There are no different prices in the market for goods sold to the hundreds of ethnic nationalities that make up Nigeria. Nigerians will express their frustration and the hopelessness of the situation at the ballot.”
Ibe added that the economic difficulties facing Nigerians cut across religious, regional and generational lines.
“The North and the South, Christians and Muslims and all shades of people, young and old are being affected by the suffering in the land. Even Nigerians who are not living on the shores of this country are wondering how those of us who do are coping with Tinubu’s handling of the nation’s affairs since he became President.
“We will be diminishing this argument if we limit it to either a North or South debate. Nigerians are feeling the pain, and they have resolved to vote out this government in 2027,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Prof. Muhammad Pate, has said there is no immediate need to cancel political campaigns, conferences or other large public gatherings following Nigeria’s confirmation of an imported Ebola case.
Pate, however, warned that the government would review the situation and consider appropriate restrictions if the outbreak worsened, stressing that any decisions would be based on scientific evidence and public health considerations.
The minister spoke on Thursday in Abuja during a press briefing on the government’s response to the case. He assured Nigerians that the patient was receiving treatment and showing encouraging signs of recovery.
Addressing the possibility of restricting political activities and public events, Pate said the government would not impose such measures without evidence that they were necessary.
“At this moment, there is no indication that requires us to alter the course of large gatherings that have been planned,” he said.
“But if the situation changes, we’ll make a determination; we’ll consult broadly with the right experts and make that determination.”
He also cautioned political leaders against politicising the outbreak, describing public health as a unifying concern that transcended political, religious and ethnic differences.
“If there is one issue that will unite Nigerians, it is health, because health has no political party, has no citizenship, has no nationality, has no tribe, no religion. It is a great unifier,” he said.
Group targets 10,000 supporters
Arewa for Asiwaju, a political support group backing President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid, has set a target of mobilising 10,000 supporters from the 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory for the flag-off of his 2027 campaign in Kaduna State.
The group said the mobilisation was aimed at demonstrating its organisational strength and consolidating grassroots support for Tinubu’s second-term bid.
In a statement issued on Thursday, the group’s Head of Media Relations, Edwin Olofu, and Director-General, Mohammed Badaru, said the target reflected the movement’s determination to mobilise supporters across the North and the FCT.
(Source: Punch with modified headline)
