By Niyi Maraiyesa
A silent but intense political chess game is unfolding in Ogun State ahead of the 2027 general elections, with three towering figures Governor Dapo Abiodun, former Governor Gbenga Daniel, and former Governor Ibikunle Amosun locked in a high-stakes battle that could redefine the political structure of the Gateway State.
Though bound by history as political allies at different times, the trio now find themselves on opposing ends of a strategic contest driven by ambition, survival, and control of the state’s political future.
At the heart of the unfolding drama is a calculated power shift, as Governor Abiodun, nearing the end of his constitutionally allowed tenure, is widely believed to be positioning himself for the Ogun East senatorial seat currently occupied by Gbenga Daniel. This move has set the stage for a direct confrontation between two influential power blocs within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
For Governor Abiodun, the senatorial ambition represents more than a routine transition. It is a strategic move to retain political relevance and influence beyond 2027. With firm control over state structures, party machinery, and delegate dynamics, the governor appears well positioned to shape outcomes within the APC.
However, Gbenga Daniel is not a political lightweight to be easily displaced. As the incumbent senator representing Ogun East and a former governor with deep-rooted grassroots connections, particularly in the Ijebu and Remo axis, Daniel commands loyalty that transcends party lines. His political resilience and experience make him a formidable obstacle in Abiodun’s path.
Observers note that this contest is not merely about a senatorial ticket, but a struggle for dominance within Ogun East a region that has historically played a decisive role in the state’s political calculations.
While that battle simmers in Ogun East, another front is quietly opening in Ogun Central, where former Governor Ibikunle Amosun is seeking to reassert his influence by securing the APC senatorial ticket. Known for his stronghold in the Egba axis and his fiercely loyal political base, Amosun remains a critical factor in the state’s political equation.
If Governor Abiodun successfully secures the Ogun East senatorial ticket while installing a loyal successor, he could emerge as the dominant political force in the state. On the other hand, if Gbenga Daniel manages to retain his seat, it would signal a significant pushback against the use of incumbency power. Meanwhile, Amosun’s next move, whether aligned with the party or in defiance of it, could either stabilise or destabilise the APC’s internal cohesion
Yet, his path is far from smooth. His relationship with the current APC leadership structure has been described as complex, and there are indications that forces within the party may be reluctant to hand him an easy return to the Senate.
Amosun’s political style often independent and unpredictable adds another layer of intrigue to the unfolding scenario. Should he face resistance within the APC, there are concerns that his response could alter the balance within the party, potentially triggering internal divisions or realignments.
Political analysts believe that beyond these individual contests lies a deeper struggle for control of the APC in Ogun State. The real battleground, they argue, is not just the ballot but the party structure itself – who controls the delegates, who determines candidates, and ultimately, who dictates the political direction of the state.
Despite the apparent tensions, there is also a strong possibility that the three political actors may be forced into a delicate compromise. The APC, wary of internal fractures that could weaken its dominance, may seek a negotiated balance that accommodates the interests of all major stakeholders.
Still, the road to such a resolution is uncertain.
If Governor Abiodun successfully secures the Ogun East senatorial ticket while installing a loyal successor, he could emerge as the dominant political force in the state. On the other hand, if Gbenga Daniel manages to retain his seat, it would signal a significant pushback against the use of incumbency power. Meanwhile, Amosun’s next move, whether aligned with the party or in defiance of it, could either stabilise or destabilise the APC’s internal cohesion.
What is clear is that Ogun State is entering a defining political moment.
Beneath the surface of party unity lies a complex web of ambition, rivalry, and strategic maneuvering. The coming months will reveal whether this high-stakes chess game ends in a decisive checkmate or a cautious stalemate among three seasoned political grandmasters.
For now, the board is set, the pieces are in motion, and the outcome remains uncertain.
. Maraiyesa, the Ogun State Bureau Chief of Africa Independent Television (AIT), writes from Abeokuta
