…sets out exchange rate, figures behind the price
Presidential candidate of the Accord Party, Dr Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim, has said his proposed ₦605 per litre petrol price is only the starting point of a broader energy policy that could eventually bring the price down to between ₦200 and ₦300 per litre.
Hashim, who has been campaigning on an energy security first agenda, said Nigeria could achieve cheaper petrol without returning to the opaque subsidy regime that existed before the 2023 reform.
The energy executive noted in a statement issued on Monday, that the fundamental question Nigeria should answer is not simply how much petrol sells for internationally, but how much it actually costs Nigeria to produce crude, refine it and deliver the finished product to Nigerian consumers.
Hashim’s campaign used a domestic crude production of $45 per barrel in explaining the proposed starting price.This includes NNPC and standard industry upper limit cost of $30 plus $15 margin.
According to the Hashim campaign cost model, a standard barrel of crude gives 159 litres. At $57 divided by 159, petrol will be approximately $0.3585 per litre.
At an illustrative exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar, that translates to about ₦502 per litre. Other costs include refining costs of $5 per barrel, distribution, transportation and insurance $7 per barells.
Hashim explained that, given that a barrel of crude accounts for 159 litres of a basket of products, unit price to a total of $57 divided by 159 liters gives $0.34 (N501).
Hashim’s campaign has proposed an Energy Stabilisation Tax of approximately ₦104 per litre, producing a figure close to the ₦605 target.
However, the campaign’s framework treats the calculation as a benchmark rather than a complete refinery cost calculation, since a barrel of crude does not produce 159 litres of petrol. It produces a basket of products, including petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, LPG and other refinery outputs.
Hashim’s broader argument rests on reducing the underlying cost of Nigeria’s petroleum system; which translates to approximately $0.346 per litre when expressed against the 159 litre barrel.
His position has attracted fresh attention following his declaration that an Accord administration in 2027 would ensure that Nigerians do not pay more than about ₦605–₦610 per litre for petrol at the beginning of its tenure.
Hashim called for an independent forensic audit of the petroleum value-chain, covering crude exploration and production, contracting, procurement, security, transportation, refining, storage, insurance, pipelines and distribution.
He insisted the exercise should establish the actual cost of producing and delivering petroleum products rather than relying automatically on international benchmark prices.
“Show Nigerians the books. Publish the production cost. Publish refinery cost. Publish transportation. Publish insurance. Publish every margin. Let the data speak.”
The Accord Party presidential candidate questioned whether Nigerians should automatically bear every international opportunity cost attached to crude produced within Nigeria, arguing that the country should distinguish. between the cost of producing energy and the international market value of the resource.
He described the conventional justification of subsidy removal as “accounting magic,” arguing that selling a domestically-produced product below an international opportunity price does not, by itself, establish that government is subsidising the product.
The Accord Party candidate noted that Nigeria’s growing refining capacity provides an opportunity to fundamentally change the country’s petroleum economics.
He proposed greater support for large scale and modular refineries, regional refining facilities, petrochemical plants, storage infrastructure and crude evacuation systems.
According to him, domestic refining should do more than eliminate imports. It should lower the cost of energy, retain value inside Nigeria and create a platform for industrialisation.
“We must stop exporting cheap energy and importing expensive products. Nigeria must refine more, manufacture more and export more value-added energy products,” he said.
Hashim said refinery capacity alone would not solve the problem if domestic refineries could not obtain adequate crude at competitive prices.
Exchange Rate Component
Hashim also noted that exchange rate stability is another major component of the proposal and has proposed an exchange rate range of approximately ₦525–₦700 to the dollar, arguing that a stronger and more stable naira would reduce the domestic cost of imported equipment, technology and other dollar linked inputs used across the energy sector.
He said the combination of lower crude production costs, efficient domestic refining and a stronger naira could eventually move petrol towards ₦200–₦300 per litre.
Hashim said the objective is not merely to make petrol cheaper but wants lower energy costs to translate into lower costs of transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, mining and other productive activities.
He argued that government should ultimately generate more revenue from an expanding productive economy rather than rely heavily on high energy prices.
He added: “The best revenue strategy is not to make everything expensive. It is to make Nigerians more productive and her manufactures more competitive.”
Hashim said the 2027 presidential election should force Nigerians to examine competing economic models rather than simply competing personalities.
He said his administration would judge its energy policy not only by the amount of revenue collected from petroleum but by whether Nigerians become more productive as energy becomes more affordable.
“₦605 is where we start. ₦200–₦300 is where we can go. The route is not magic. It is lower production costs, domestic refining, a stronger naira, greater energy production and a government that understands that affordable energy is an investment in national productivity.”
